Beware of Pop Up Super PAC(s) Attempt to Smear Congresswoman Mary Miller

Written by John Lopez

Friday morning May 20 in downstate Lincoln, I participated in a political roundtable hosted by the daily POLITICO Illinois Playbook column writer Shia Kapos called “Pancakes and Politics”.  About two dozen people attended for the breakfast meeting ranging from party chairs (both Democrats and Republicans), political consultants, lobbyists and journalists including retired State Journal-Register reporter Bernard Schoenburg.

Given Lincoln is within the geographic boundaries of the 15th Congressional District and the incumbent-vs.-incumbent Republican primary between Congressman Rodney Davis (R-Taylorsville) and first-term Congresswoman Mary Miller (R-Oakland), the IL-15 was the 2nd topic covered by Kapos with the participants, after the Republican gubernatorial primary.

During the discussion among the participants with knowledge about the Republican primary and politics, I pointed out with Congresswoman Miller’s endorsement by former President Trump plus the significant financial backing of the Club for Growth Action super PAC, whenever Trump and Club for Growth (CFG) are supporting the same candidate thus far in the 2022 election cycle, the Trump/CFG backed candidates are unbeatable.

This was why when Kapos took an informal poll of who would win, I was one of two or three participants to vote Miller would win the IL-15 Republican primary over Davis.

We’ll know who’s right on the night of June 28.

My assessment was met with some skepticism, but as I shared with the participants, the record thus far in 2022 primary season (Texas, Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon) proves the point I’m making.

CFG and Trump have differed in a few races, most notably the open U.S. Senate primaries in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and while the latter state is too close to call, CFG backed Kathy Barnette in Pennsylvania opposed to Trump’s backing celebrity Dr. Oz in a Republican primary and Barnette will not win.

Returning to the Illinois discussion, I also pointed out what happened in 2020 in the Republican primary in the IL-14 in the final two weeks up until the March 17, 2020 primary.

Pop up super PACs and the 2020 IL-14 Republican Primary

As the term implies, a “pop up” super PAC literally is created right before an election and the timing of its creation intended to prevent voters from determining who is bankrolling the new super PAC until after the election.

Super PACs, particularly at the Federal level in congressional races, support and/or oppose a congressional or U.S. Senate candidate through “independent expenditures” (IE), which are not given directly to a congressional candidate’s campaign committee, but is spent by the super PAC to implement TV commercials, digital marketing and/or mailers for the candidate the IE supports and/or opposes.

IEs are required to be reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in what is called a Form 24, which identifies the IE and which candidate(s) are being supported and/or opposed with the IE.

A pop up super PAC, called “Illinois Conservatives PAC” was formed on March 2 of 2020, 15 days before the primary election, and in the final 11 days of the primary campaign, spent $911K on broadcast TV and radio ads in an attempt to derail then-state Senator Jim Oberweis‘ (R-Sugar Grove) congressional primary bid in the IL-14 primary.

It almost worked, as Oberweis, according to an independent poll published at the start of March of 2020, had a double digit lead over state Senator Sue Rezin (R-Morris) in the crowded 7-person winner-take-all congressional primary.  After the pop up super PAC finished its work, Oberweis’ lead was cut down significantly, but he still bested Rezin by 2 percentage points, as no candidate could move-up in the wake of Oberweis being brought down.

On Friday in Lincoln, I pointed out the Illinois Conservatives PAC that attempted to stop Oberweis winning the IL-14 primary in 2020 was actually bankrolled by the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the major Republican super PAC funded significantly in the 2022 election cycle by Citadel Asset Management CEO Ken Griffin.

In addition to the tens of millions of dollars Griffin has bankrolled in the 2022 Illinois Republican gubernatorial primary backing Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, The Wall Street Journal reported in mid April where else Griffin is contributing an additional $18.25 million ($7.5 million to CLF) including monies spent in the Honor Pennsylvania super PAC opposing Trump-endorsed Dr. Oz in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, along with the Senate Majority super PAC and the American Patriots super PAC.

But with pop up super PACs, the problem with these legal entities is the voting public does not know who’s funding them until after the election.  The CLF’s bankrolling of the Illinois Conservatives PAC was not made public until April 15, 2020, a month after the Illinois primary in 2020, when the Illinois Conservatives PAC filed its quarterly campaign disclosure report with the FEC.

Source: FEC website

Before leaving the breakfast event in Lincoln, I made clear to the participants to expect something similar in IL-15 with the pop up super PAC.  After returning to Chicagoland Friday afternoon and I should have realized, the pieces had already been put into place for IL-15 to have a repeat of IL-14, for a pop up super PAC has already been formed to oppose Congresswoman Miller in IL-15.

History Repeats Itself in IL-15 with April Formation of Illinois Values PAC and TV Commercials

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From February POLITICO